美欧货币冰火两重天,朝鲜仍是最大风险

 上周美元和欧元表现可谓冰火两重天。美元随着市场对税改的憧憬以及年底加息的预期一度创下七周高位,欧元方面政治冲突爆发,因西班牙加泰罗尼亚地区上周日的独立公投引发骚乱,之后又在欧洲央行周四最新会议记要出炉后触及七周低点,因市场认为会议记要偏鸽派。

       美元顺风顺水

       美国众议院周四批准2018财年预算解决方案,其中包括税改调解措施,将递交给参议院,这意味着特朗普税改计划取得了首个实质性进展。

       周五稍早,美元兑日元上升至逾两个月高位,兑欧元涨至七周峰值,因市场认为美国劳工部报告的9月薪资数据是可能推高通胀的一个迹象。9月平均时薪较前月增加0.12美元,或0.5%,8月增幅为0.2%。9月非农就业岗位减少3.3万个,因飓风哈维和伊尔玛让流离失所的工人暂时失业,并推迟了招聘活动。

       “我认为,大部份人意识到,非农就业岗位数据会被飓风扭曲,但令人意外的是,平均时薪增长加速,”Brown Brothers Harriman新兴市场外汇策略部门主管Win Thin说,“这是美联储遇到的困惑中有待解开的一个谜。”

       市场本已对美联储将在12月会议上升息,并可能在2018年继续加息的预期很高,薪资增长加速进一步提振了这种预期。

       “美联储点阵图暗示明年加息三次,市场不确信这一预期,”Thin说,“我认为,如果未来有更多这类数据公布,市场将越来越信服美联储给出的升息路径。”

       此外,推动美元涨势的还有新任美联储主席的任命。上周二美国媒体消息称,特朗普的助手向他提交了下任美联储主席最终人选的名单中,其中有耶伦、特朗普首席经济顾问科恩、前联储理事沃什(Kevin Warsh)、现联储理事鲍威尔(Jerome Powell),也在考虑斯坦福大学经济学家John Taylor。消息人士称,耶伦在考虑名单中,但特朗普内部圈子中几乎没有人推荐提名她连任。目前仍然不清楚,特朗普是否最终会提名耶伦。

       美国政治押注网站PredictIt的赌盘数据显示,耶伦明年连任的概率只有10%,远落后于沃什和鲍威尔,后两人出任的概率分别为39%和26%。外界认为这两人都是接替叶伦的有力候选人,而鲍威尔被认为比沃什立场更温和,沃什过去曾批评美联储的购债计划。如果美联储候选人的立场较强硬,可能促使投资者押注货币政策的正常化步伐更为激进,美元受益。

       朝鲜局势仍在左右美元走势。据俄罗斯卫星网报道称,根据一名刚刚从朝鲜返回的俄罗斯议员的说法,平壤已经准备好测试能够到达美国西海岸的导弹。这一消息导致周五(10月6日)纽约时段市场避险情绪再度弥漫,美元周五收盘下跌,逆转了稍早涨势。

       欧元连遭重击

       欧元目前依旧受到围绕加泰罗尼亚政治和社会动荡的担忧影响。因西班牙加泰罗尼亚地区周日的独立公投引发骚乱,周一兑美元触及逼近8月中旬以来最低,兑瑞郎更触及三周低位1.1407瑞郎。

       加泰罗尼亚分离派政治人士宣称将于下周一的议会会议上单方面宣布独立后,西班牙宪法法院周四下令暂缓加泰罗尼亚地区议会下周一的会议,这进一步加剧了西班牙这场自1975年以来最严重的危机。

       支持独立的加泰罗尼亚议员Mireia Boya说,下周一的议会会议上,宣读完公投最终结果之后,就会宣布独立。“我们知道可能会有革职、逮捕……但是我们已经准备好了,无论如何也不会停止。”她在Twitter上说。

       加泰罗尼亚的阴霾一时半会儿恐难退去,料仍将主导欧元短线走势。

       而最新公布的欧洲央行9月会议纪要显示,央行决策者在上月会议上讨论了延长资产购买计划到明年可能的各种情境,部分人士认为任何决定都应包含减少资产购买。此外,决策者还表达了对欧元快速升值的担忧。

       梅姨或在圣诞节前下台?

       英镑周五跌至四周最低,因英国首相特雷莎梅控制领导地位的不确定性不断增加,且美国强劲的就业市场数据提振美元。

       英镑兑美元和英镑贸易加权指数势将创一年内表现最差的一周,周线跌幅超过2%。政治不确定性和对英国经济体质的担忧拖累英镑在过去两周大跌了超过3.5%。

       英国脱欧带来的负面效果还在发酵,经济生产率在脱欧公投后的12个月里出现了自2013年以来最快的年率下跌。梅的首相宝座也开始动摇,英国执政党反对派声称有“50/50”的可能将会在未来三天内质询特蕾莎梅,要求她在年底前下台。

       据彭博报道,一位原英国部长暗示,英国首相特里莎·梅正在失去同僚的信心,应当考虑辞职。周三,原本意在重振其领导地位的保守党大会关键演讲沦为了一场灾难。演讲发表以来,英国保守党议员Ed Vaizey是对特里莎·梅继续担任首相公开表达担忧的第一个议员,他认为许多同僚也有同样的感受。

 

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发布日期:2017年10月10日  所属分类:头条

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